In recent years, in the downstream demand strong growth and international oil prices higher trigger ethylene method, PVC prices pulling calcium carbide method PVC has achieved great development. In the first half of this year, xinjiang days industry, the force, 300kt shares, zhongtai chemistry, billion and main domestic PVC enterprise high etc, net income increased by more than 25 percent year-on-year all, some even more than 50%, most of the enterprise the economic technique index at record highs. But there are signs that calcium carbide method PVC enterprise day is coming to an end, next year will face four pressure.

Excess capacity of pressure

With rich resources advantage and ethylene method with the incomparable cost PVC price advantage, our country calcium carbide method PVC industry won the rapid development in recent years. In 2001, calcium carbide method PVC yield only 1.6 million tons, domestic PVC total of that year, and by 53.7% in 2006, the data achieved respectively 594 million tons and DGF, with annual growth of a league-low 86.8 tons. A sharp increase in yield, while faster productivity growth has, to the end of 2006, China's total of PVC has reached distance 1158 tons can, including calcium carbide method PVC capacity more than 81 million tons.

According to data released by the Chinese chlor-alkali association, in 2007 ~ 2008, our country calcium carbide method PVC capacity will still increase 789.5 tons. Among them, the 2007 will have yibin hd, Inner Mongolia Erie, henan space, xinjiang days industry more than 400 tons of such project phase project put into production, makes 2007 output will exceed domestic PVC 15 million tons, the output is expected to exceed 10 million tons; The 2008 and yulin, overpass chemical, 80.1% of xinjiang days industry more than 400 tons phase etc project put into production, when output will increase to 1,200 tons again. So, this year already last year in the domestic PVC will be the basis of the basic balance supply supply slightly next year, will be very obvious.

The pressure of the rising costs

Each production 1 ton PVC need about 1.5 tons of calcium carbide. Since 2004, reckless expansion of production capacity for calcium carbide industry, the small scale of the enterprise, energy resource utilization rate is low, the serious environmental pollution situation, the national development and reform commission jointly relevant departments, including taking price to execute a difference to many times, limiting bank loans, forced demolition backward measures such as calcium carbide furnace, calcium carbide capacity behind is greatly reduced. Since last year, because of shanxi and shaanxi provinces MengNing four major calcium carbide producer or force the enterprise to close banned calcium amounted to more than 180 tons of production capacity from July began, the calcium carbide output growth down the obvious and sustained. Affected by this, calcium carbide since April prices continue to rise, the country at present in 2700 yuan carbide ex-works common (tons price, similarly hereinafter), a rose 500 ~ early 700 yuan, that a makes PVC enterprise cost increased 1000 yuan.

In the future, of calcium carbide industry government as local, rectify and eliminated intensified efforts domestic calcium carbide production capacity will further reduction, and now the two years production PVC device, centralized needs a large number of calcium carbide materials, and final result, inevitably led to the continuing price higher. Calcium Expected next year will exceed domestic calcium carbide factory price $3500, PVC enterprise raw material costs will add 1200 yuan.

Energy conservation and emission reduction pressure

According to the request of eleventh five-year plan in China in 2010, to energy consumption per unit of GDP than in 2005 drop 20%, main pollutants than 2005 reduced by 10%. All the energy conservation and emissions reduction task very arduous. To ensure "11th five-year plan" energy consumption and pollutant discharge index, will further increase the realization of energy-intensive, polluting industry regulation and strength, as water, power consumption and waste water and gas and waste residue emitters PVC industry, will undoubtedly become the calcium carbide industry, governments around the world after the readjustment of the attack. Calcium carbide method PVC enterprise will face increasing energy conservation and emission reduction and environmental stress, some even likely due to lack of energy saving and emission reduction, and environmental protection are substandard and elimination.

Export tightening pressure

To curb the "resource-dependent" products export, our country nearly two years of adjustment including plastic raw materials and many times the product export tax rebates, products of policy.

On September 15, 2006, will plastics raw materials and products export drawback by 13% drop to 11%; This July 1, will plastics raw materials and products export drawback from 11% to 5%; July 23, and plastics raw materials and products listed in the restricted category for export processing trade new catalogue. This suggests that countries will increasingly strict control, including PVC plastic raw materials and products export, PVC and downstream products future exports will still is restricted, there might even in the next year was completely cancel remaining 5% of export tax refund offers, which inevitably expediting domestic supply, PVC enterprises face contradiction fierce market competition and harsh survive the test.

Therefore, calcium carbide method PVC enterprise never indulge in sight of the joy, should fully realize industry facing the grim situation and future challenges and save for a rainy day. On the one hand to strictly control the rapid increase of the production capacity, on one hand we should by technical innovation and technology progress, energy consumption and environmental friendly walk and "waste" comprehensive governance and recycling cleaner production path. Conditional enterprise, should as far as possible through acquisitions or restructuring methods, the calcium carbide enterprise "incorporated in his column," and "three wastes" by the governance of and building your own cogeneration project, maximize reduce costs, face to face with the market competition.